The long term, an obviousness… rarely applied
In the field of sustainable development and the environment, the expression "future generations" is so recurrent that it has become unavoidable. Thus, respect for future generations is a key element of public and political decision-makers' discourse when they talk about the environment.< However, current political decisions and the predominance of the short term over the long term contradict these discourses.
In the face of climate change, the growing loss of biodiversity, and the degradation of our ecosystems, the fate of these future generations seems less enviable than ours. Public decision-makers today are not in a position to integrate the long term into their vision and public policy choices. Several factors are at play here.
The political system: a factory of short-termism
The very structure of the political game, first of all.< A decision is built based on various considerations and interdependencies: representation of the collective interest, analysis of economic and social elements, strategies and power dynamics among the actors, windows of opportunity, but also the personal objectives of the decision-maker. The latter knows that they will be judged by citizens based on their achievements. The electoral cycle and the professionalization of the political body lead the decision-maker to prefer projects that have the highest social acceptability or that provide the quickest responses to their voters' expectations.
In this context, environmental conservation policies, whose benefits are observed over several years, appear much less appealing to the political decision-maker. The development of economic activities, visible to the citizen, will be more easily valued by their voters at the end of their term. Thus, the arbitration in favor of the long term is hindered by the personal ambitions of the political actor.
The economy: when tools favor the present
However, the economic system in which we operate does not allow for the development of reflection on the long-term costs and benefits of certain public choices.< "In the long run, we are all dead," Keynes once said. Economic profitability over short timescales is often prioritized over a spread of benefits. The tools used in economic forecasting shape this balance of power between the short term and the long term.
Let's take the example of the discount rate. When calculating the costs and benefits of a project over several years, they must be discounted, meaning determining the present value of these future cash flows. A very high discount rate diminishes the future compared to the present: it gives more weight to the values of the years that are closer to us.
Conversely, a low discount rate will smooth costs and benefits over the considered time scale, and future values will be better taken into account.
Thus, depending on the discount rate chosen to evaluate the profitability of a project, the balance of power between the short and long term will not be the same. Moreover, whether or not certain future costs or benefits are taken into account affects the profitability of certain projects and influences political decisions. The example of the choice of nuclear energy in France is interesting here: would this technology have been chosen if the costs of decommissioning the plants had been truly measured in calculating its profitability?
Reintegrating long-term thinking into public decision-making
How can we promote the consideration of the long term in this context?< What tools can be provided to decision-makers so that their decisions are made with socio-economic horizons stretched over a longer time? Indeed, the ecological transition forces us to reconsider a much larger timescale. Environmental protection does not lead to immediate and spectacular gains, but in the long term, it produces essential benefits.
Furthermore, in the face of major environmental and climate issues, the costs of political inaction can become considerable, whether at the local, national, or international level. Some costs are already reflected in public budgets: increased health expenses related to air and water pollution or measures for protection against climate hazards (such as dikes to counter coastal erosion, for example).
Tools to clarify political trade-offs
Thus, we must find the keys and tools for political decision-makers to integrate the value of the environment over the long term.< Economics is often a decisive argument for political arbitration; let’s use it to discuss the environment and the services provided by ecosystems with decision-makers. Thus, during a study on the benefits of the Coastal Conservatory's strategy by 2050, Vertigo showed that strengthening the coastal protection efforts by this institution generated more benefits than weakening this protection. In addition to using economic tools as advocacy for the long term, foresight and the construction of realistic scenarios have a role to play in political arbitration.
Thinking about the future: a democratic challenge
Helping politicians envision the future is one of the keys to promoting the long term. The proposed scenarios should not be catastrophic.< On the contrary, it is necessary to show how the integration of environmental services and ecology into decision-making can lead to desirable and pragmatic future situations in the face of the changes we must confront. The obstacles to considering the long term are numerous, and simply implementing new decision-making support tools is not sufficient. The question of overhauling the political system is thus inevitable. It is first necessary to separate decisions concerning the management of society and territories from those that engage their future and future structure.
Today, it is the same political representatives who must decide on present issues and future choices. This question of the long term is recurrent in French political and institutional life. Already, the DATAR under General de Gaulle had the ambition of planning activities and land use over several decades.
Similarly, the creation of the CESE and its role as the "House of the Long Term" once gave hope for long-term political reflection on the country's orientations. Unfortunately, the actions of this body are now far too limited. In his book, "For an Ecological Democracy," Dominique Bourg offers avenues for reflection to modify our democratic model, such as the creation of a future parliament tasked with reflecting on and deciding long-term issues and a reform of democracy with the random selection of elected officials.
The immediacy that characterizes our societies, the social acceptability of potential political reforms, and the prominence of short-term issues in decision-making are also obstacles to overcome. Environmental problems thus push us to engage in additional reflective efforts to implement innovative solutions that illuminate political arbitration. Demonstrating the concrete benefits of long-term environmental policies to decision-makers, as environmental economics allows, is already a first step.
